DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/23 10:52

DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/23 10:52

   Grain Futures Mixed Midday Wednesday

   Corn is 1 cent to 2 cents higher up front, 6 cents to 8 cents lower on new 
crop, soybeans are 3 cents to 5 cents lower, and wheat is 4 cents to 19 cents 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 25. The U.S. Dollar Index 
is 6 higher. Interest rate products are mostly lower. Energies are firmer with 
crude up .80. Livestock trade is weaker with hogs the downside leader. Precious 
metals are firmer with gold up $10.


   Corn trade is 1 cent to 2 cents higher on July, with new crop 6 cents to 8 
cents lower with spreads firming and trade fading from the overnight highs with 
rains in parts of Iowa and less short-term threats in the forecast. Ethanol 
margins are seeing support from corn values holding the lower end of the range 
with the weekly report showing production up 23,000 barrels per day (bpd), with 
stocks 518,000 barrels higher, with a big gasoline draw. Brazil weather looks 
mostly unchanged short term as the crop advances towards harvest with some late 
rains while U.S. weather be watched for heat in the extended forecast while the 
Northwest part of the belt continues to miss the rains the rest of the belt has 
seen. Corn basis should remain flat to weaker near term with more attention 
going to new crop as well as feed wheat becoming available. On the July 
contract, trade is back below the 20-day at $6.67 failing to hold above on 
tests, with the lower Bollinger band at $6.32 as support.


   Soybeans are 3 cents to 5 cents lower with slightly weaker spreads, and meal 
remaining an anchor on values even as soy oil firms and new-crop sales of 
330,000 metric tons (mt) sold to China. Meal is $5.50 to $6.50 lower and oil is 
$1 to $1.20 higher. The weather pattern should allow for better short-term 
development with rains needed to boost double-crop areas during planting as 
wheat comes off. South America should continue to see shipping progress short 
term, with U.S. basis returning to flat short term with bids rolling to the 
back months in many locations. On the July soybean chart support is the lower 
Bollinger Band at $13.48 as trade rebounds with the $14.50 area that was 
pre-washout support the next round up as resistance.


   Wheat trade is 4 cents to 19 cents higher with trade being led by spring 
wheat as the crop declines with winter wheat pushing deeper into harvest with 
action fading on KC and Chicago at midday. The dollar is weaker, pulling back 
slightly from the higher end of the range but not able to slide through 
support. Harvest should continue to pick up steam with combines starting to 
roll north of I70. Other Northern Hemisphere weather will continue to be 
watched as well with little fresh news on the front with short-term stress in 
the Black Sea area possible. KC has narrowed back to a 53-cent discount, 
sharply off the recent highs, with Minneapolis at a 1.45-cent premium, getting 
back to the highs. Kansas City July on the chart has resistance the 20-day at 
$6.19 with support at the lower Bollinger band at $5.88.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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