DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/23 11:03

DTN Midday Grain Comments     01/23 11:03

   Wheat, Beans Higher at Midday

   Soybeans are the leader at midday up a nickel, with corn and wheat 
struggling to hold gains.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow 65 higher. The interest 
rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 20 points lower. Energies are 
weaker with crude down $0.60. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are 
narrowly mixed. 


   Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday with early gains fading yet again. 
The South American recent weather pattern remains intact with a mix of 
excessive rain and pockets of dryness with some potential improvement down the 
road. Ethanol margins remain poor with futures still near the lows with 
significant blender margin improvement likely waiting until spring with futures 
improving slightly and the weekly report delayed until Thursday. Winter weather 
will likely slow corn movement again, keeping basis flat to firmer. The 
government partial shutdown is expected to continue to limit news. On the March 
chart support is the multiple moving averages at the $3.77-3.79 area, with 
resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $3.83 1/2. 


   Soybean trade is 2 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade remaining near the 
upper end of the range after bouncing back from the break lower on delayed 
trade negotiations yesterday but struggling holding the gains. Meal is flat to 
$1 higher, and oil is 15 to 25 points higher. South America weather items 
remain in the recent weather pattern with harvest going early amid heat and 
pockets of dryness in Brazil with generally disappointing yields so far, and 
excessive rain potential in Argentina. Basis has been pretty flat with the 
weather likely to add support. Forecasts are being monitored closely. Support 
is the $9.07 50-day moving average, and resistance the 200-day at 9.24.


   Wheat trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at with more talk of Russian restrictions 
adding support to the market along with talk of China buying with trade trying 
to consolidate through the resistance levels cleared the last couple of trading 
days. Early gains have faded yet again. The dollar has bounced last week into 
this week, but remains in the lower part of thu two-month range. Southern 
Hemisphere harvest will continue in the near term. North American winter wheat 
should be ok moisture wise with cold snaps the biggest threat for now. Russia 
domestic prices will be watched closely with firmer values again there. On the 
March Kansas City chart, support is the 50-day at $5.03 with resistance the 
upper Bollinger band at $5.13.

    David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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